By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter
MANY FILIPINO HOUSEHOLDS that recently escaped poverty remain at risk of falling back below the poverty line as elevated food and energy prices continue to erode their purchasing power, analysts said.
GlobalSource Partners Philippine Analyst and Principal Advisor Diwa C. Guinigundo said that moving above the poverty line is not the same as escaping poverty vulnerability.
“Many of the households that have just crossed the threshold may still be only one significant shock away from falling back into poverty,” Mr. Guinigundo told BusinessWorld via Viber. “In other words, the poverty line tells us who is poor; it does not tell us who is secure.”
The Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) preliminary poverty estimates showed the share of Filipinos living in poverty fell to 9.7% in 2025, equivalent to 11.08 million Filipinos, from 15.5% or 17.54 million in 2023. This meant about 6.46 million Filipinos are no longer living in poverty.
University of Asia and the Pacific Economist Marco Antonio C. Agonia said many Filipinos who moved above the poverty threshold are still at risk.
“Many of these households are one economic shock or hospital bill away from experiencing a marked deterioration in living conditions,” Mr. Agonia told BusinessWorld via e-mail.
Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa, executive director of think tank IBON Foundation, said poverty should not be treated as a condition that disappears once household income moves slightly above the official threshold.
“We should be asking whether people have adequate and stable incomes, decent work, adequate food, housing, healthcare, education, electricity and transportation, and whether they can withstand ordinary economic shocks without reducing these essentials,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Analysts also warned that elevated food and energy prices could place additional pressure on households just above the poverty line.
This aligns with earlier warnings by Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan that persistently high inflation could reverse the country’s progress in poverty reduction.
“A household just above that line can still have very little cushion against a food price shock, power rate increase, transport fare adjustment, illness, job loss, typhoon or other income disruption,” Mr. Guinigundo said.
Mr. Agonia noted that the bulk of the budget for these households is still heavily concentrated in food and fuel, where prices tend to be more volatile.
PSA data showed inflation for the bottom 30% of income households accelerated to 8.2% in July from 8% in June, even as overall inflation eased to 6.2% from 6.4%.
Mr. Africa said at least 800,000 to one million families could be at risk of falling back into poverty, citing the income distribution in the 2023 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.
“This is according to the PSA’s unrealistically low poverty threshold of P96/day, because of higher inflation projected at 6.5% for this year,” he added.
SOLUTIONS
Meanwhile, analysts said targeted cash assistance and subsidies could help near poor households cope with higher prices.
“To protect this near poor group, the government may expand its targeted subsidies or cash transfers a little beyond the poverty line,” Mr. Agonia said.
However, he said expanding assistance may be “deeply unpopular” with the tax-shouldering middle class and could add pressure to the government’s fiscal consolidation program.
“As a long-run solution, the country needs to generate high-value jobs capable of facilitating upward mobility for these Filipinos,” he added.
Mr. Africa said that because inflation is cost-push driven, immediate cash assistance remains necessary to help families maintain their purchasing power.
“But, of course, this short-term emergency measure cannot substitute for recurring and widespread vulnerability from the lack of decent employment and wages, affordable food and energy, and universal public provision of essential education, health and housing,” he added.
Mr. Guinigundo said subsidies or ayuda should not be the government’s primary long-term response.
“The strongest anti-poverty policy is sustained income growth that reaches the bottom of the distribution,” he said. “The next stage of Philippine poverty policy should therefore be about economic security, not just poverty reduction.”
“That means good jobs, higher and more predictable incomes, affordable food and energy, quality public services, and social protection against shocks,” he added.
At the same time, Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto said the administration’s next task is to protect those who have moved above the poverty line as well as support the middle class through higher disposable income, lower household expenses and more jobs.
“Our next challenge is to ensure continued upward mobility, so that those who have risen out of poverty do not fall back into it, and more people are able to lift themselves out of it. We must also further protect our middle class,” Mr. Recto said in Filipino in a statement.
Mr. Recto said the administration is pushing for several key measures such as raising the personal income tax exemption of individuals to P350,000 annually, exempting small businesses from the minimum corporate income tax, granting a general tax amnesty and abolishing the travel tax.
He also urged Congress to amend the Electric Power Industry Reform Act to prevent distribution utilities and electric cooperatives from passing system-loss charges to consumers. — with Erika Mae P. Sinaking
