THE PESO broke the P64-per-dollar level for the first time on Tuesday, closing at a new record low as rising global crude oil prices heightened concerns over the Philippine economic outlook, while expectations of a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve this week added pressure on the local currency.
The currency shed 22 centavos to end at P64.17 against the greenback from its previous weakest close of P63.95 on Monday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.
This marked the peso’s 38th record low this year and its ninth so far in October.
Tuesday was also the seventh straight trading day that the peso ended at an all-time low.
Year to date, the peso has weakened by P5.38 or 8.38% from its P58.79 finish on Dec. 29, 2025.
The local unit opened Tuesday’s session flat before hitting an intraday best of P63.90.
Its worst showing for the day was at P64.20, which also beat the previous intraday record low of P63.95.
Dollars traded rose to $1.726 billion on Tuesday from $1.649 billion on Monday.
The peso’s continued depreciation was a confluence of domestic macroeconomic concerns and expected hawkishness from the US Federal Reserve this week, market players said.
Soaring global crude oil prices also continued to weigh on the local currency, the first trader said by telephone.
A second trader said the next psychological level now stands at P65 per dollar, while the first trader said this level will not be touched within the year.
“The next resistance is P64.40. After that is uncharted territory and will depend on BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) guidance and the outcome of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting,” the first trader said.
A third trader likewise said the local currency might remain weak in the near term amid safe-haven dollar demand from elevated geopolitical tensions.
China Banking Corp. Chief Economist Domini S. Velasquez said in a Viber message that the peso’s recovery will depend on how quickly the Philippine economy can recover amid heightened uncertainty.
“The peso hit a record low of P64 per dollar despite the BSP’s surprise 50-bp (basis point) rate hike in October. A similar episode occurred in August, when the peso also weakened to a record low following a rate increase. This reinforces our view that rate hikes alone may not be enough to reverse the peso’s depreciation,” she said.
Ms. Velasquez said uncertainty over economic recovery is offsetting the seasonal support from remittances, which usually provide support for the peso in November and December.
Despite downside risks, Ms. Velasquez expects the peso to recover modestly to around the P63 level by yearend if it stays near the P64-per-dollar level.
Still, financial markets could remain volatile in early November as investors assess incoming economic data and the outlook for recovery, she said.
“Pressure on the currency is likely to persist, with October and November inflation potentially approaching 8% and third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth possibly falling below 3%,” Ms. Velasquez said.
MARCOS MEETS WITH BSP
Meanwhile, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. met with BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. and the economic managers “to discuss the implications of the BSP’s October monetary policy decision and strengthen coordination in addressing inflation and broader economic challenges,” Malacañang said on Tuesday.
The BSP on Thursday delivered a surprise 50-bp rate hike, bringing its benchmark rate to a nearly two-year high of 5.5%.
In a statement, the Presidential Communications Office (PCO) said stronger coordination among government agencies, including the BSP, is needed to protect Filipinos’ purchasing power, manage inflation, and sustain GDP growth.
“The government continues to implement measures to mitigate the effects of El Niño and expedite public spending for infrastructure and social protection. Accelerating priority expenditures and addressing implementation bottlenecks remain crucial to ensuring that government programs deliver timely results,” the PCO said.
The central bank had said the “decisive” jumbo rate hike was necessary to address broadening price pressures and keep inflation expectations anchored amid further upside risks, especially with the strong El Niño. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with inputs from Erika Mae P. Sinaking
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