By Alexandria Grace C. Magno, Reporter
INVESTORS will look beyond new policy promises in President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, with analysts saying the stock market’s longer-term direction will hinge on whether the administration can deliver concrete, time-bound reforms during the remainder of its term.
While the address could provide a short-term boost to investor sentiment, analysts said financial markets are likely to focus on policy execution, regulatory consistency, and the government’s ability to translate commitments into legislation, budgets, and completed projects.
China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said the SONA should move beyond broad economic goals and identify specific reforms that would support growth.
“The SONA presents an opportunity to articulate a clear and actionable economic agenda. Beyond setting the vision, it should identify the specific policies and reforms that will drive growth, tame inflation, and improve governance,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Colet said priorities should include accelerating high-impact infrastructure spending, lowering electricity costs, strengthening food production and supply chains, and building a globally competitive mining and minerals processing industry.
“Should the President deliver a strong and credible economic reform message, domestic financial markets are likely to react favorably, with the stock market potentially attempting to regain the 6,400 level in the near term,” he added.
Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Head of Sales Trading Toby Allan C. Arce echoed the view, saying investors generally distinguish between policy announcements and programs that can realistically be implemented before the end of the administration’s term.
“The SONA by itself is unlikely to trigger a lasting revaluation of the Philippine equity market. Political speeches can generate a temporary sentiment boost, particularly when they contain business-friendly announcements, but equity investors generally distinguish between policy declarations and executable programs,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Arce said markets could respond positively if the address lays out a clear economic direction, but any gains are likely to be short-lived unless Congress, implementing agencies, and regulators follow through.
“The more important market signal will be whether the government can maintain policy continuity, avoid disruptive regulatory changes, and show that its priority reforms have realistic legislative and financing pathways,” he said.
He said investors are expected to evaluate the SONA on a sector-by-sector basis, with infrastructure, banking, property, utilities, renewable energy, and consumer stocks likely to respond to announcements backed by credible implementation plans.
Areas expected to draw particular attention include infrastructure delivery, public-private partnerships (PPPs), energy security, food supply, fiscal discipline, capital market reforms, and regulatory consistency.
Mr. Arce said investors would also watch for measures that could negatively affect individual industries.
“The risks would also be sector-specific, particularly if the address includes price controls, new taxes, tighter industry regulation or mandates that raise operating costs without adequate transition periods,” he added.
Investment & Capital Corp. of the Philippines President and Chief Operating Officer Jesus Mariano P. Ocampo said investors are also seeking stronger signs that the administration remains committed to governance reforms, particularly its anti-corruption campaign.
“On the SONA, a ‘wish’ message from the President is really his stance on addressing the corruption issue. That was his main theme last time — and seems nothing has really happened yet,” he said in a Viber message.
“So investors want to know if this is still something he is going after.”
Mr. Ocampo also said investors want clearer plans for managing inflation risks arising from geopolitical tensions while preserving a stable policy environment.
“From an equity markets perspective — the President also has to be clear on a couple of matters — addressing inflation given the Iran situation and its impact on fuel price and exchange rates, and ensuring the rules of the game do not change,” he said.
Mr. Arce said foreign investors remain focused on policy credibility rather than headline growth targets.
“For foreign investors, the most consequential issue is likely to be policy credibility rather than headline growth targets… This indicates that international investors are not merely asking for additional incentives; they are looking for regulatory predictability, efficient institutions, and confidence that rules will be applied consistently across administrations and industries,” he said.
He said a favorable reception to the SONA could initially improve sentiment, but foreign investors are likely to wait for evidence that the reforms are being implemented.
The government’s anti-corruption campaign last year weighed on economic growth, while controversy surrounding allegedly anomalous flood control projects dampened consumer and investor sentiment, contributing to weakness in the stock market.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 2025 at 6,052.92, down 7.29%, or 475.87 points, from its end-2024 close of 6,528.79.
“The key distinction is between announcement value and implementation value. Local equities could react positively to credible policy signals immediately after the speech, but foreign investors are more likely to wait for subsequent legislation, budget alignment and measurable agency action,” Mr. Arce said.
“The strongest outcome for the market would therefore not be the largest number of promises, but a focused and achievable agenda that demonstrates the administration can complete important economic reforms before the end of its term.”
